From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Why did US labor productivity accelerate without a comparable improvement in other advanced economies? The March 2024 analysis examines technology, fiscal support and labor flexibility, emphasizing the contribution of sectors built around specialized knowledge. The expansion of online retail also helped explain the gains.
Read the workStrong headline job growth concealed a narrow concentration of hiring across sectors in early 2024. Rising layoffs suggested a softer labor market than the aggregate employment figures implied. Combined with the assessment that the recent inflation increase was temporary, that evidence supported an expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts soon afterward.
Read the workConflict in the Middle East was rerouting trade and increasing transport costs in early 2024. Yet purchasing managers' surveys did not show a substantial deterioration in delivery times. The analysis distinguishes rising logistics expenses from a broader supply disruption, while warning that a longer or wider conflict could change that balance.
Read the workEquities led emerging market portfolio inflows in February 2024, attracting $17.2 billion of a $22.2 billion total. Debt received $5 billion, while Chinese stocks accounted for $9.6 billion of equity inflows. The breakdown identifies both the importance of stock investment and China's contribution to that month's result.
Read the workUS growth remained resilient even as tighter lending standards slowed the credit impulse in early 2024. Strong household spending and government expenditure helped explain the disconnect between weaker bank lending and continued GDP expansion. Signs of fading consumption momentum nevertheless raised questions about how long that support could last.
Read the workUS disinflation in early 2024 was uneven across spending categories. Services remained a source of persistent pressure, with shelter helping explain the latest strong consumer price reading. The February assessment connects those remaining inflation pressures to the Federal Reserve's cautious communication, despite progress elsewhere in the price index.
Read the workUnusually large capital withdrawals from China suggested a change in how investors assessed geopolitical exposure after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The February 2024 analysis identifies Latin America as a potential beneficiary of portfolio rebalancing. Less restrictive central banks and stronger international debt issuance could further support emerging economies outside China.
Read the workFinancial conditions, business surveys and the relationship between employment and inflation offered mixed signals about the timing of Federal Reserve easing in February 2024. While much of the evidence suggested waiting until at least June, the analysis argued that normalizing inflation justified a more accommodative stance by May. These were competing assessments at that historical date.
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