From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
607 results
Portfolio investment returned strongly to emerging markets in September 2019. Jonathan Fortun reports debt inflows of $27.6 billion and a simultaneous recovery in equities. The tracker also distinguishes these securities flows from the broader net capital flow measure, which recorded $30.9 billion entering emerging markets in August.
Read the workArgentina faced persistently large public financing requirements in September 2019. Jonathan Fortun, Martín Castellano and Sergi Lanau explain why substantial debt holdings within the public sector did not eliminate refinancing risk. Most immediate debt service fell on bonds governed by domestic law, an important distinction for understanding the financing challenge.
Read the workRetail job losses in September 2019 reflected the declining market share of physical stores without eliminating their efficiency gap with online commerce. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguished that sectoral adjustment from stronger overall US hiring, then running near 150,000 jobs per month against roughly 80,000 needed to keep unemployment stable. They saw scope for unemployment to fall further, rather than treating retail contraction as evidence of general labor market weakness.
Read the workJonathan Fortun and Junichi Fujimori discuss data policy, cloud services, machine learning, digital identity and digital currencies in the IIF's first Japanese-language FRT episode.
View detailsEscalating trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a reversal signal in emerging market portfolio flows on August 6, 2019. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun stress that the withdrawal extended broadly across emerging markets. A bilateral trade shock was therefore transmitting through international investment beyond the two economies at its center.
Read the workDebt sustainability risks differed sharply across emerging markets in July 2019. Boban Markovic, Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau distinguish high and rising debt in Brazil and South Africa from refinancing pressure linked to large debt service in Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan. Their systematic assessment highlights fiscal vulnerabilities beyond headline debt ratios alone.
Read the workExpectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not weaken the dollar against other major currencies in July 2019. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks identify simultaneous easing signals from other central banks and a reduced exchange rate response to interest differentials. Both mechanisms limited the currency impact of a more accommodative Fed outlook.
Read the workA recovery in Chinese equities helped emerging market portfolio inflows reach $40.8 billion in June 2019, their strongest reading in five months. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun distinguish $12.6 billion of equity investment from $28.2 billion in debt. The broader net capital flow measure recorded outflows in May, highlighting the difference between periods and coverage.
Read the work