Institute of International Finance July 23, 2026

IIF Global Macro Views: AI is Rewriting Global Imbalances

Marcello Estevão ·

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About this work

AI is reshaping international trade and capital allocation before its productivity gains are established, the authors argue. Their analysis distinguishes supplying chips and equipment from owning platforms and intellectual property that earn recurring income. Emerging economies may gain productivity through adoption while still paying more for imported hardware and digital services. Building exportable digital capacity could instead attract lasting investment and improve external balances.

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Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: AI is Rewriting Global Imbalances. Institute of International Finance.