About this work
Marcello Estevão and Jonathan Fortun ask how much the U.S. AI investment boom actually supports employment and wages, given how strongly it has lifted output. They find that GDP has gained far more than jobs. IT investment contributed 0.9 percentage point to growth over the past year, nearly half the total and roughly three and a half times its 2001 to 2019 average, while AI specific spending added about 0.35 to 0.5 after imports. Equipment dominates, and higher prices and foreign production hold down domestic output. Computers made in the U.S. support 2.9 jobs per $1 million of demand, against 5.8 in construction. The direct wage benefit is therefore limited, and wider gains depend on adoption.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: The Labor Content of the AI Investment Boom. Institute of International Finance.