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Emerging markets received $56.6 billion in portfolio inflows in September 2024, split broadly evenly between equities and debt. Chinese stocks attracted $24.1 billion, accounting for most of the $27.9 billion equity total. The figures distinguish a strong aggregate month from the geographic concentration of its equity component.
Read the workParaguay, Ethiopia, Vietnam and Poland illustrate how different starting conditions call for different growth strategies. Agricultural development, public investment, market reforms and European integration each played distinct roles. The comparison emphasizes international trade and investment alongside domestic reforms, while identifying the institutional, innovation and demographic challenges that remain.
Read the workFederal Reserve easing can attract capital to emerging markets and strengthen their currencies, improving the appeal of local assets. The September 2024 analysis also examines the tradeoffs: currency appreciation can hurt exporters, while dependence on mobile capital creates vulnerability when US monetary policy eventually tightens again. Effects differ across asset classes.
Read the workThe September 2024 outlook combines slowing global growth with expectations of substantial Federal Reserve easing. Lower US rates could support emerging markets, but regional exposures differ. Geopolitical tensions, the US election and changes in trade policy frame the risks, while stability and technological progress shape the prospects for 2025.
Read the workDebt investment accounted for nearly all emerging market portfolio inflows in August 2024: $29.2 billion of a $30.9 billion total. Equity inflows were modest at $1.7 billion, while Chinese stocks saw withdrawals of $1.5 billion. The breakdown reveals how strong bond demand can coexist with continued equity weakness in China.
Read the workEmerging market portfolio inflows reached $36.5 billion in July 2024, with debt attracting $29.4 billion and equities $7.1 billion. Chinese stocks nevertheless recorded $0.9 billion in outflows. Bond demand led the aggregate recovery, while the equity total concealed continued selling in China.
Read the workA strong dollar does not affect every Latin American economy in the same way. Differences in production, policy, external debt and trade determine how currency movements transmit across the region. The analysis also considers how carry trades and the geopolitical use of the dollar can amplify pressures, making adaptation to dollar dominance a continuing policy challenge.
Read the workWeak US activity data and a shift in Bank of Japan policy helped trigger the August 2024 market scare. The unwinding of carry trades transmitted pressure to emerging market currencies and capital flows. Despite rising recession fears and expectations of deeper Federal Reserve cuts, the assessment retained a constructive outlook for the United States and emerging economies.
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