From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Stronger productivity and prospective changes in US fiscal, labor and trade policy motivate a reassessment of the neutral interest rate. The December 2024 analysis links higher potential output with persistent inflation pressures and market expectations, arguing that the interest rate baseline should adjust to a more resilient economy.
Read the workEurope faces tariff exposure on top of rising production costs and tougher competition from China. The November 2024 assessment identifies German autos and Italian machinery as particularly vulnerable, while examining opportunities in green technology and advanced manufacturing. It separates the ECB's inflation mandate from the fiscal and trade measures needed to improve competitiveness.
Read the workHow much of the announced US tariff agenda would become policy? This November 2024 analysis contrasts markets' apparent expectation of bargaining tactics with the consequences of full implementation. Supply chain disruption, weaker global growth and possible Chinese retaliation would create uneven risks and opportunities across emerging economies.
Read the workOctober 2024 brought only $1.9 billion in net portfolio inflows to emerging markets. Debt inflows of $27.4 billion almost entirely offset $25.5 billion in equity withdrawals, including $9 billion from Chinese stocks. The aggregate masks a sharp divergence between demand for bonds and selling in equity markets.
Read the workThe immediate market response to Trump's 2024 election victory is weighed against the longer implications of his policy agenda. Tax cuts and deregulation could support activity, while fiscal expansion, tariffs and tighter immigration could add inflation and financing pressures. A stronger dollar would transmit part of that adjustment to emerging borrowers.
Read the workFortun joins Clay Lowery to discuss Japanese elections, Bank of Japan measures and the implications of recent economic and political developments.
View detailsDiscussions at the 2024 Annual Meetings highlighted a resilient expansion alongside unresolved financial and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve and ECB easing promised support for liquidity, but fiscal choices and political developments could limit further cuts. China's subdued growth, volatile capital flows and oil prices complicated the outlook for emerging economies.
Read the workThe October 2024 global outlook turns on the interaction of policy shifts, geopolitical shocks and unexpected economic data. US fiscal deficits and possible oil price increases threaten disinflation, while China's weak recovery affects trade and commodities. Emerging economies remain resilient, but domestic inflation and divergent policy paths leave the balance of growth risks unsettled.
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