Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Identifying the ultimate owners of ships reveals patterns in Russian energy exports that vessel registration and flags can obscure. In October 2022, Jonathan Fortun and coauthors reported that Greek owners accounted for 55 percent of tanker capacity shipping Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, compared with 35 percent in comparable earlier periods. Extending their tracking database to coal also pointed to rising Russian shipments to India and Turkey.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Energy and trade shocks changed the currency valuation landscape after Russia invaded Ukraine. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle extend their October 2022 assessment to emerging markets, identifying overvaluation in the Egyptian pound and Turkish lira alongside substantial undervaluation in the Brazilian real.
Sergi Lanau · Jonathan Fortun · Gene Ma / Institute of International Finance
The timing of a consumption recovery shaped China’s growth outlook in October 2022. Sergi Lanau, Jonathan Fortun and Gene Ma compare earlier and later rebounds after pandemic restrictions, alongside housing weakness and global recession risks. Their scenarios produced a 2023 growth range of 4.3% to 5.5%, with a central forecast of 4.6%.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau · Gene Ma · María Paola Figueroa · Martín Castellano / Institute of International Finance
China’s bond outflows persisted beyond the record portfolio withdrawals of early 2022. IIF trackers showed exceptionally large outflows in the second quarter, with selling of local currency bonds exceeding the first quarter; nonresident withdrawals slowed in July without reversing. Central banks accounted for only 10% of first quarter bond outflows, indicating that official reserve managers explained a limited share of the selling.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Reforming Europe’s fiscal rules would not by itself solve the financing problem of peripheral sovereigns. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in August 2022 that even better estimates of economic slack leave the question of who buys new debt. Their analysis highlights reliance on ECB purchases and the need to bring private investors back.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
External bond repayments exposed different financing vulnerabilities in El Salvador and Pakistan in August 2022. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau projected a Salvadoran funding gap of at least 4% of GDP in the second half, with heavy reserve use expected. Pakistan’s smaller potential gap depended critically on official creditors renewing loans and providing support.
Sonja Gibbs · Jeremy McDaniels · Michaela Palmer · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The July 2022 Sustainable Finance Monitor surveys developments in sustainable finance, including a nature positive economy, the transition away from coal and updates from GFANZ. Coauthored by Jonathan Fortun, the issue also covers policy and regulation, open consultations, new initiatives and tools, and a research roundup. A market section presents a third quarter snapshot of debt and equities.
Andrés Portilla · Martin Boer · Matthew Ekberg · Richard Gray · Stefan Gringel · Melanie Idler · Mary Frances Monroe · Soichiro (Ichiro) Ochiai · Robert Priester · Katie Rismanchi · Takeshi Sugiuchi · Hillary Veals · Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
The July 2022 regulatory update brings together developments in cryptoasset capital treatment, climate risks and insurance supervision. Its overview highlights the Financial Stability Board’s communication to the G20, work on climate and bank capital, and assessment of insurance capital aggregation methods. Jonathan Fortun is listed among the contributors to this collective institutional update; the overview does not assign individual sections.