Jonathan Fortun’s research on Bolivia’s economy: exchange rates, inflation, monetary conditions and the links between macroeconomic adjustment and development.
Understanding Bolivia’s economy requires connecting the headline indicators with the constraints facing households, firms and public institutions. Jonathan Fortun’s research examines foreign exchange access, inflation and monetary arrangements alongside their consequences for development. This page explains the main questions and connects them to dated research and commentary in the archive below.
An exchange rate quotation tells us a price, but not necessarily the amount of currency available at that price or the conditions under which it can be obtained. Official, bank, cash and digital market quotations should be identified separately. Their buy or sell convention, timing and transaction setting matter when making comparisons.
For any discussion of Bolivia’s dollar market, ask which rate is being used and what it measures. A gap between two quotations is a comparison of those measures; it is not, by itself, an estimate of an equilibrium exchange rate. Valuation requires a separate economic framework and explicit assumptions. The Banco Central de Bolivia’s external sector statistics provide a source for official external and exchange rate series.
The consumer price index measures changes in the prices of a specified basket. Monthly inflation compares with the preceding month; annual inflation compares with the same month a year earlier. The INE’s CPI guide and charts explain these measures. Neither should be confused with the change in every household’s individual cost of living.
For analysis, the distinction between a price level and its rate of change is essential. Lower inflation does not necessarily mean prices are falling. A forecast or nowcast is also different from an official published observation. Any estimate should name its target period, information cutoff and uncertainty rather than appear as another confirmed data point.
Inflation can reflect interacting supply and demand pressures. The IMF introduction to inflation outlines these mechanisms. Explaining an episode requires evidence on the relevant channels; an exchange rate move alone does not establish the size or timing of its effect on consumer prices.
Money, liquidity, bank credit and public financing answer related but distinct questions. A monetary series needs a definition, unit and reporting date before it can support a claim about conditions. A monthly observation does not become a weekly one because it is checked more frequently. Growth rates and levels should also be distinguished.
A useful reading of an adjustment program asks how its elements fit together: the government’s financing needs, the banking system’s balance sheets, the availability of foreign currency and the incentives facing savers and borrowers. The order and implementation of measures matter for interpretation. An announcement is evidence of an announced policy, not proof that its economic effects have already occurred.
Trade, financing and reserve movements should be read together, with attention to definitions and release dates. A single headline about reserves or borrowing cannot establish the full external position. The BCB’s external sector data directory helps locate official series; individual releases remain the reference for their coverage and methodology.
This connects the Bolivia research agenda to the broader capital flows theme. The question is not only whether financing arrives, but what form it takes, what obligations it creates and how changes in its availability reach the domestic economy. International comparisons are useful when the underlying measures are genuinely comparable.
Macroeconomic adjustment is experienced through prices, access to finance and the ability to save, produce and trade. Jonathan’s Bolivia work keeps these distributional questions alongside the aggregate indicators. The research and commentary collected here examine how monetary and foreign exchange constraints connect with inequality and economic activity.
To read a specific argument, start with its date, evidence and type of publication. Academic research, institutional analysis and a quotation in a news article have different scopes. The archive preserves their original titles and authorship, including publications under Jonathan M. Fortun Vargas. The professional biography explains the connection between those names and Jonathan Fortun.
Use the filters below to find work by date, title or topic, then follow its original source. For current numerical readings, consult the dated statistical release rather than treating this evergreen introduction as a live economic bulletin. The press kit provides biographical and attribution material, and the contact form is available for research and media inquiries.
73 results
Bolivia’s central bank sold $35 million as it sought to reduce exchange rate volatility. Jonathan Fortun tells Central Banking that the parallel market was already pricing a stronger boliviano than the official fixing, interpreting the sale as an adjustment toward market pricing. His comments connect currency intervention with the competing need to accumulate foreign exchange reserves under the proposed IMF program.
View detailsBolivia plans to eliminate fuel subsidies by 2027 as part of its fiscal adjustment under a $1.9 billion IMF program. Jonathan Fortun warns that the subsidy cuts arrive before other reforms can deliver results. He highlights limits on central bank financing as a credible commitment and identifies the removal of lending rate caps and credit quotas as a major political test.
View detailsBolivia’s IMF program has advanced on exchange rate reform and central bank financing, but fuel pricing remains its hardest political test. Jonathan Fortun examines how currency depreciation and import costs have eroded earlier subsidy reforms, arguing that postponement can shift the adjustment from higher pump prices to shortages. The essay connects reform sequencing with the credibility of the 2027 budget.
View detailsExamines how foreign exchange rationing and regulatory access shape digital dollar activity in Bolivia. The paper documents expanding activity and supervisory reporting after the June 2024 policy change, with Argentina and Cambodia as contrasting cases.
Read the workThe article cites Fortun's warning that Bolivia must sustain fiscal discipline and reforms after IMF disbursements begin.
View detailsReuters analysis examines how Bolivia's President Rodrigo Paz is pushing market oriented reforms and a $1.9 billion IMF program while his coalition fractures. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said the $1.9 billion does not fundamentally change Bolivia's solvency arithmetic. He argued the program would ease immediate financing pressures but not restore debt sustainability alone, and that the government must cut fuel subsidy costs, curb support for state firms and narrow the deficit.
View detailsFortun contrasts Bolivia's historical currency redenomination with its current exchange-rate adjustment, using an equilibrium-rate framework to argue that nominal change can precede deeper economic repair.
View detailsFortun contrasts Bolivia's exchange-rate announcements and IMF staff agreement with limited usable reserves, arguing that simultaneous policy headlines do not by themselves resolve the external constraint.
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