Jonathan Fortun · Yuanliu Hu · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Sri Lanka’s debt outlook in October 2020 depended on reversing the fiscal effect of earlier tax changes, but the more immediate vulnerability was external financing. Jonathan Fortun, Yuanliu Hu and Sergi Lanau examined the difficulty of meeting borrowing needs without international bond issuance. Official lending could bridge the gap if provided early, although the authors considered that support unlikely without a strong IMF program.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Weak portfolio inflows do not necessarily mean that foreign investors hold small positions in emerging markets. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun distinguish recent flows, which reflect sentiment, from accumulated holdings shaped by years of inflows and valuation changes. In October 2020, ahead of the US election and further COVID waves, they argued that foreign positioning remained substantial despite the pandemic shock.
Benjamin Hilgenstock · Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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The October 2020 capital flows outlook anticipated a slow and uneven recovery in emerging market inflows. It linked the weakness to China’s smaller stimulus response than in 2009 and India’s deep recession, both weighing on commodity exporters. A widely available vaccine was identified as a potential catalyst for stronger flows. These were forecasts made during the pandemic, not final growth outcomes.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Efforts to revive inflation after the pandemic created currency tensions as the United States, euro area and Japan tried to reflate simultaneously. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks compared central bank forecasts in October 2020 and found a much faster projected inflation recovery in the United States. They argued that a weaker dollar against the yen and euro could aggravate this divergence and complicate the other economies’ efforts to restore inflation.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Yield curve control helped the Bank of Japan contain yen appreciation in 2016 by shifting attention away from fears of government bond scarcity. By September 2020, however, the framework constrained policy while other central banks eased aggressively. With larger fiscal deficits easing scarcity concerns, the analysis argued for returning to quantitative and qualitative easing. This is the policy recommendation made at that time.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Emerging market activity returned to expansion in Jonathan Fortun’s September 2020 growth tracker as trade improved and business surveys recovered. Accommodative monetary policy supported the rebound, but the assessment remained cautious: the initial reopening boost would fade, labor market disruption could restrain consumption, and firms were cutting investment. Purchasing managers’ surveys pointed to further recovery, with considerable uncertainty about differences across regions.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Foreign withdrawals from local government bonds persisted after the initial pandemic shock. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau show how some emerging economies offset those losses by borrowing internationally, while others faced a net reduction in foreign funding. Their September 2020 assessment separates local bond flows from governments’ broader access to external finance.