Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Why did the pandemic imply a deeper global recession than the financial crisis? The September 2020 forecast projected a 3.8% world contraction, compared with 0.4% in 2009, attributing most of the difference to China and India. China lacked an infrastructure stimulus comparable to 2009, while India faced a sharp lockdown contraction rather than its earlier expansion, weakening the outlook for other emerging economies.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Weak growth can leave emerging markets exposed to contagion even when external financing is not their only vulnerability. This September 2020 assessment identifies limited funding buffers alongside a lack of room for policy support, highlighting Brazil, Mexico and South Africa among economies where those constraints could amplify financial stress.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau · Yuanliu Hu / Institute of International Finance
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Sri Lanka faced a widening current account deficit and difficult external bond repayments in this August 2020 assessment. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors identified substantial financing gaps across several scenarios, arguing that large support from official lenders would probably be needed. They stressed that such assistance could come with demanding adjustment conditions, connecting the external funding shortfall to the policy choices required to address it.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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A partial recovery in services and retail could leave a disproportionate employment shortfall after the initial pandemic shock. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau used Spanish retail trade to illustrate how labor intensive sectors translate even modest output losses into substantial job losses. Their August 2020 analysis focused on the employment consequences of an incomplete return to normal activity.
Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Argentina’s debt restructuring could improve external financing prospects if the IMF rolled its exposure into a new program. The August 2020 assessment shifts attention to the remaining fiscal deficit and how to fund it: immediately ending monetary financing would require difficult spending and budget adjustments. Debt relief therefore eased one constraint without resolving the domestic financing challenge.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Dollar performance against advanced and emerging currencies told different stories in August 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks contrast relative stability against the G10 with appreciation against emerging markets exposed to weaker commodity prices. The absence of a Chinese stimulus comparable to 2009 underpinned their view that a sustained dollar decline was unlikely in the near term.
Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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The collapse of international tourism threatened a major source of activity in emerging markets during the pandemic. Writing in July 2020, Jonathan Fortun and coauthors estimated that tourism could fall by 60 percent that year even under optimistic assumptions. They anticipated an uneven recovery, with Asia and Europe better positioned, while emphasizing that uncertainty over the pandemic made the outlook unusually fragile.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Import compression was reshaping emerging markets’ external balances during the pandemic. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare trade trends in the first half of 2020 and find imports falling sharply enough to outweigh export losses in almost every country examined. Their July assessment anticipates the disappearance of current account deficits through this crisis adjustment.