世界の金融市場から、開発、通貨、経済活動をめぐる問いへ。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
607 件
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The rapid escalation of the pandemic prompted another downgrade to the global outlook in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks cut their growth forecast below 1% as falling oil prices, credit stress and disrupted capital markets amplified the shock. They then expected first half recessions in the United States, euro area and Japan, followed by a recovery later that year.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Real time indicators showed an exceptionally severe flight of capital from emerging markets as the pandemic escalated in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare the outflows with earlier global and Asian crises. They anticipated reserve losses and narrower current account deficits as access to external financing contracted.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Repeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak investment threatened to make the emerging market growth slowdown more persistent in January 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks survey investment across emerging economies and find aggregate growth in investment near zero. Turkey, Argentina and Mexico showed especially pronounced weakness, linking the broader stagnation debate to the accumulation of productive capacity.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak emerging market growth reflected two different problems: acute crises and a more persistent investment slowdown. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguish these groups in their January 2020 assessment. They focus on Mexico and South Africa, where weak investment risked turning a recent slowdown into a structural constraint on growth.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Historically low US unemployment in early 2020 had not produced a clear acceleration in underlying inflation. Comparing labor force participation with other advanced economies, the analysis argues that substantial unused labor capacity might remain despite the low headline unemployment rate. That distinction matters for judging how close the economy is to its productive limits.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The slowdown in emerging economies after the global financial crisis was sharper than the US experience commonly associated with secular stagnation. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks connect that weakness with subdued investment and lower commodity prices. Their December 2019 analysis asks whether forces beyond the commodity cycle were holding back emerging market growth.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
An inventory correction offered an alternative explanation for weak global manufacturing in late 2019. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argue that excess stocks, rather than trade tensions disrupting supply chains, accounted for much of the slowdown. By December, an improving leading indicator suggested that the inventory adjustment might be nearing its end.
論文を読む