About this work
Repeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
Abstract
Repeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
Cite this work
Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks, Ugras Ulku (2020). Global Macro Views: Credit Expansion in Turkey. Institute of International Finance.