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主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
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英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Smaller current account deficits did not eliminate emerging markets’ external financing risks in June 2019. Large debt repayments still warranted caution, particularly in Turkey and South Africa. The assessment also identified resident capital outflows as a vulnerability in Turkey and Argentina, where import compression had improved the current account without removing financing pressures.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Low underlying inflation challenges estimates that treat much of the euro area periphery’s unemployment as structural. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks use the Phillips curve to compare unemployment gaps with inflation outcomes. Their June 2019 analysis argues that conventional measures understate remaining economic slack and overstate structural unemployment in those economies.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Recovering equity investment in emerging Asia triggered an IIF portfolio flow surge alert on June 3, 2019. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun identify China as a key driver of the rebound. The recovery followed trade tensions that had produced the largest emerging market capital outflow in six months.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Improving global growth signals and a more accommodative Federal Reserve did not translate into a uniform emerging market currency or capital flow rebound in early 2019. The report attributes that gap to heavy investor positioning accumulated during a decade of loose monetary policy in the major economies. It therefore raised its 2019 nonresident inflow forecast only modestly, to $1,260 billion from $1,135 billion in 2018.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Why did a more accommodative Federal Reserve fail to lift many emerging market currencies in early 2019? Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Tariq Khan suggest that accumulated investor positions after years of easy monetary policy limited the response to further easing. Excluding China, the recovery in flows appeared weak, with meaningful first quarter inflows concentrated in Indonesia and Mexico.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Improving financial conditions were not enough to arrest the emerging market growth slowdown in February 2019. Jonathan Fortun and Tariq Khan report a tracker reading of 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted, annualized three month basis, as hard data and business sentiment weakened. They nevertheless anticipated a rebound over the following months.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Updated currency valuations incorporate the large exchange rate, current account and activity changes surrounding the 2018 emerging market selloff. In the February 2019 estimates, the Argentine peso and Turkish lira remained only mildly expensive, while India, Indonesia and South Africa showed greater overvaluation. Emerging Asia, including China, remained substantially undervalued under the framework.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The Federal Reserve’s early 2019 shift away from tightening could revive capital inflows to emerging markets even though investors had already priced in a pause. High frequency flow data were showing a sharp increase as the search for yield resumed. The analysis identifies South Africa as the most crowded positioning case, with Brazil and Russia the least heavily positioned among the markets assessed.
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