Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Takaichi’s electoral landslide strengthens the ability to implement policy without removing Japan’s economic constraints. Stalled fiscal consolidation, weak domestic monetary transmission and trade frictions in autos limit the available options. Government bond yields and the yen increasingly reflect those fiscal and policy limits, making interest rate differentials alone an incomplete guide to market behavior.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Rising Japanese government bond yields in May 2025 reflect monetary normalization, inflation expectations and term premiums in this assessment. A stronger yen, contained credit risk measures and solid auctions support that reading. Private investors absorb supply as the central bank steps back, suggesting an adjustment in market pricing rather than a loss of fiscal confidence.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The May 2025 Japan outlook forecasts growth of 1.2 percent in 2025 and 0.7 percent in 2026, with a temporary contraction as trade frictions meet softer consumption. Services and employment offer some resilience despite manufacturing weakness. Firm wages support gradual monetary normalization, while limited fiscal room constrains the response to slower activity.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Japan's 2025 outlook balances a recovery in household demand against inflation and external risks. Wage gains support consumption, while yen depreciation complicates monetary normalization. The December 2024 assessment also examines exposure to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and investment in automation, green technology and infrastructure.
Fortun discusses how new borrowing by South Korea, Turkey and Mexico supported July portfolio inflows into emerging markets. He also considers how prospective US monetary easing and the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades could affect demand.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Ending Japan's extraordinary monetary easing marked a turning point, but full normalization remained distant in April 2024. The Bank of Japan's large government bond holdings and the market effects of yield curve control complicated the transition. Reducing that footprint gradually carried implications for the yen and public finances.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Cooling inflation complicated the timing of Japan's exit from yield curve control in early 2024. Wage negotiations were central to establishing a firmer basis for policy normalization. The February assessment retained an expectation of an exit by July, while recognizing that Governor Ueda's communication could alter the timetable.