世界の金融市場から、開発、通貨、経済活動をめぐる問いへ。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
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英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Discussions at the 2024 Annual Meetings highlighted a resilient expansion alongside unresolved financial and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve and ECB easing promised support for liquidity, but fiscal choices and political developments could limit further cuts. China's subdued growth, volatile capital flows and oil prices complicated the outlook for emerging economies.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The October 2024 global outlook turns on the interaction of policy shifts, geopolitical shocks and unexpected economic data. US fiscal deficits and possible oil price increases threaten disinflation, while China's weak recovery affects trade and commodities. Emerging economies remain resilient, but domestic inflation and divergent policy paths leave the balance of growth risks unsettled.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging markets received $56.6 billion in portfolio inflows in September 2024, split broadly evenly between equities and debt. Chinese stocks attracted $24.1 billion, accounting for most of the $27.9 billion equity total. The figures distinguish a strong aggregate month from the geographic concentration of its equity component.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Paraguay, Ethiopia, Vietnam and Poland illustrate how different starting conditions call for different growth strategies. Agricultural development, public investment, market reforms and European integration each played distinct roles. The comparison emphasizes international trade and investment alongside domestic reforms, while identifying the institutional, innovation and demographic challenges that remain.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Federal Reserve easing can attract capital to emerging markets and strengthen their currencies, improving the appeal of local assets. The September 2024 analysis also examines the tradeoffs: currency appreciation can hurt exporters, while dependence on mobile capital creates vulnerability when US monetary policy eventually tightens again. Effects differ across asset classes.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The September 2024 outlook combines slowing global growth with expectations of substantial Federal Reserve easing. Lower US rates could support emerging markets, but regional exposures differ. Geopolitical tensions, the US election and changes in trade policy frame the risks, while stability and technological progress shape the prospects for 2025.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Debt investment accounted for nearly all emerging market portfolio inflows in August 2024: $29.2 billion of a $30.9 billion total. Equity inflows were modest at $1.7 billion, while Chinese stocks saw withdrawals of $1.5 billion. The breakdown reveals how strong bond demand can coexist with continued equity weakness in China.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging market portfolio inflows reached $36.5 billion in July 2024, with debt attracting $29.4 billion and equities $7.1 billion. Chinese stocks nevertheless recorded $0.9 billion in outflows. Bond demand led the aggregate recovery, while the equity total concealed continued selling in China.
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