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主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。

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617 件

2021年12月9日IIF

Global Macro Views: Japanification of the Euro Zone

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

High public debt and very low bond yields coexisted in Japan under sustained central bank support. The December 2021 comparison asks whether the euro area was moving toward a similar configuration, as the European Central Bank’s role expanded and foreign government bond holdings declined. It presents an emerging parallel between the two monetary systems, rather than a completed convergence.

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2021年11月25日IIF

Global Macro Views: Turkish Lira Weakness

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Turkey’s November 2021 currency selloff resembled the 2018 crisis in scale but occurred with a stronger external balance. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Ugras Ulku attribute the pressure to continued rate cuts, changing market psychology and the reversal of speculative inflows. They interpret the fall as overshooting and retain their contemporary fair value estimate of 9.50 lira per dollar.

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2021年11月18日IIF

Global Macro Views: Are US Treasuries still a Risk Hedge?

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

The safe haven role of US Treasuries depends partly on the durability of foreign demand. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in November 2021 that dollar strength reduced foreign central banks’ need to intervene and accumulate Treasury holdings. Persistently weak inflows could leave the market more exposed to global shocks and require renewed Federal Reserve support.

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2021年11月4日IIF

Global Macro Views: The End of the Great Fiscal Illusion

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

The authors examine how central-bank asset purchases can suppress sovereign yields and obscure fiscal constraints, focusing on the euro area's policy-normalization risks.

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2021年11月2日IIF

IIF Capital Flows Tracker - November 2021

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Debt drove emerging market portfolio inflows in October 2021, attracting $20.1 billion of the $24.9 billion total. Jonathan Fortun reports $4.8 billion entering equities overall, while Chinese stocks alone received $7.3 billion. That contrast reveals offsetting equity withdrawals outside China beneath the positive aggregate.

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2021年10月28日IIF

Global Macro Views: Supply Disruptions signal US Overheating

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Exceptionally long delivery times and large price increases in the United States pointed to strong demand as well as supply constraints in October 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect this pattern to unusually large fiscal support. They interpret the disruption as evidence of overheating and retain a 2022 core inflation forecast above the Federal Reserve’s projection at the time.

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2021年10月21日IIF

Global Macro Views: In Defense of Currency Devaluations

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

The report reviews large, sustained real currency depreciations since 1980 and their relationship with export volumes, imports and current-account adjustment.

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2021年10月14日IIF

Global Macro Views: The Bond Market Sell-Off

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

The October 2021 bond selloff differed from the rise in yields earlier that year. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find increases spread more broadly across maturities, with a smaller rise in real yields. Greater sensitivity to positive economic surprises suggested renewed focus on recovery and a movement toward, though still short of, conditions seen during the 2013 taper tantrum.

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