The article reports on IIF analysis coauthored by Fortun about carry-trade unwinding, currency volatility and the policy buffers available in Latin America.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging market portfolio inflows reached $36.5 billion in July 2024, with debt attracting $29.4 billion and equities $7.1 billion. Chinese stocks nevertheless recorded $0.9 billion in outflows. Bond demand led the aggregate recovery, while the equity total concealed continued selling in China.
Marcello Estevão · Martín Castellano · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
A strong dollar does not affect every Latin American economy in the same way. Differences in production, policy, external debt and trade determine how currency movements transmit across the region. The analysis also considers how carry trades and the geopolitical use of the dollar can amplify pressures, making adaptation to dollar dominance a continuing policy challenge.
Fortun discusses how new borrowing by South Korea, Turkey and Mexico supported July portfolio inflows into emerging markets. He also considers how prospective US monetary easing and the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades could affect demand.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak US activity data and a shift in Bank of Japan policy helped trigger the August 2024 market scare. The unwinding of carry trades transmitted pressure to emerging market currencies and capital flows. Despite rising recession fears and expectations of deeper Federal Reserve cuts, the assessment retained a constructive outlook for the United States and emerging economies.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
June 2024 brought $16.1 billion in portfolio inflows to emerging markets, including $11.2 billion into debt and $4.9 billion into equities. Chinese stocks experienced $1.3 billion in withdrawals. The figures separate positive aggregate investment from a continuing divergence between China and other equity markets.