Fortun links an extended emerging-market outflow cycle to dollar strength and discusses how inflation and China's outlook could shape subsequent flows.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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External bond repayments exposed different financing vulnerabilities in El Salvador and Pakistan in August 2022. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau projected a Salvadoran funding gap of at least 4% of GDP in the second half, with heavy reserve use expected. Pakistan’s smaller potential gap depended critically on official creditors renewing loans and providing support.
Fortun explains that emerging-market withdrawals had become unusually widespread across regions, unlike earlier episodes when inflows elsewhere provided some offset.
Sonja Gibbs · Jeremy McDaniels · Michaela Palmer · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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The July 2022 Sustainable Finance Monitor surveys developments in sustainable finance, including a nature positive economy, the transition away from coal and updates from GFANZ. Coauthored by Jonathan Fortun, the issue also covers policy and regulation, open consultations, new initiatives and tools, and a research roundup. A market section presents a third quarter snapshot of debt and equities.
Andrés Portilla · Martin Boer · Matthew Ekberg · Richard Gray · Stefan Gringel · Melanie Idler · Mary Frances Monroe · Soichiro (Ichiro) Ochiai · Robert Priester · Katie Rismanchi · Takeshi Sugiuchi · Hillary Veals · Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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The July 2022 regulatory update brings together developments in cryptoasset capital treatment, climate risks and insurance supervision. Its overview highlights the Financial Stability Board’s communication to the G20, work on climate and bank capital, and assessment of insurance capital aggregation methods. Jonathan Fortun is listed among the contributors to this collective institutional update; the overview does not assign individual sections.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Heavy speculative positions against the yen created the risk of a sharp reversal in July 2022. The assessment argues that rising recession fears could reduce expected monetary tightening abroad and shift interest rate differentials in Japan’s favor. Markets had yet to price that change, leaving the currency vulnerable to disorderly appreciation if recession concerns intensified.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Global recession risks could reverse the yen’s weakness in the July 2022 assessment. Rising overseas yields had widened interest rate differentials while Bank of Japan yield curve control held domestic yields down. Falling global rates would reverse that pressure, supporting yen appreciation. This was a forecast based on the policy configuration at the time.