Jonathan Fortun · Esther Grambs · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Yuanliu Hu · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging markets responded to the pandemic differently from earlier crises by easing monetary policy to support domestic activity. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors explain how additional liquidity helped governments borrow in local bond markets. Their December 2020 assessment nevertheless finds smaller fiscal support than in advanced economies and anticipates tightening across most emerging markets in 2021.
In analysis prepared for BBC News Brasil, Fortun compares Brazil's portfolio-investment recovery with other emerging economies and discusses fiscal credibility and sustainability.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
A broader sample tests whether large currency depreciations support exports. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun lower their real depreciation threshold to 20%, expanding the historical sample from nine to 24 episodes since 1980. Their December 2020 analysis finds median export volume growth doubling in the following years, challenging the view that dollar invoicing neutralizes the trade response.
Fortun links record emerging-market inflows to vaccine optimism and reduced uncertainty after the US election, while emphasizing that the recovery benefits countries unevenly.
Reporting on Brazilian interest-rate futures cites Fortun and Robin Brooks on how vaccine progress supported renewed investor flows into emerging markets.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Currency valuations varied sharply across emerging markets in November 2020 despite broad dollar overvaluation. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun distinguish an undervalued renminbi and several Latin American commodity currencies from overvaluation in Argentina, Egypt and South Africa. China’s rising external surplus supported their contemporary assessment of its currency.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Changes in bond holdings reflect both transactions and movements in asset values. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau extend their emerging market government bond database to distinguish those effects in November 2020. Outflows and valuation losses reduced positions in many markets, while China attracted investment without comparable valuation losses and gained portfolio weight.