Institute of International Finance October 28, 2020

Macro Notes: Tourism - Downside Risks Dominate Outlook

· Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova

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About this work

Tourism’s uneven recovery remained vulnerable to renewed pandemic restrictions in October 2020. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova maintained a baseline decline of 60% to 70% in tourism revenues. Rising infections in the United States and Europe threatened further setbacks, with Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey identified as particularly exposed.

Abstract

Tourism’s uneven recovery remained vulnerable to renewed pandemic restrictions in October 2020. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova maintained a baseline decline of 60% to 70% in tourism revenues. Rising infections in the United States and Europe threatened further setbacks, with Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey identified as particularly exposed.

Cite this work

Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Elina Ribakova (2020). Macro Notes: Tourism - Downside Risks Dominate Outlook. Institute of International Finance.