Institute of International Finance June 16, 2021

Macro Notes: Are Commodity Prices a Threat to EM Inflation?

· Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova

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About this work

Rising food and energy prices posed particular inflation risks for emerging markets because these goods weigh heavily in household consumption. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova find only moderate headline inflation increases by June 2021 despite higher import costs. They connect relatively stable expectations with improving central bank credibility, an assessment specific to that stage of the recovery.

Abstract

Rising food and energy prices posed particular inflation risks for emerging markets because these goods weigh heavily in household consumption. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova find only moderate headline inflation increases by June 2021 despite higher import costs. They connect relatively stable expectations with improving central bank credibility, an assessment specific to that stage of the recovery.

Cite this work

Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Elina Ribakova (2021). Macro Notes: Are Commodity Prices a Threat to EM Inflation?. Institute of International Finance.