About this work
Russia’s oil export earnings remained near historical highs in March 2022 despite sanctions and discounted crude. This analysis separates the effect of higher global oil prices from the transport constraints and price discount facing Russian producers. Together with falling domestic demand, those earnings were expected to sustain a large external surplus. Writing on March 31, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova projected a 2022 current account surplus of $200 billion to $240 billion, compared with $120 billion in 2021. These figures describe the forecast at publication, not the eventual outcome.
Abstract
Russia’s oil export earnings remained near historical highs in March 2022 despite sanctions and discounted crude. This analysis separates the effect of higher global oil prices from the transport constraints and price discount facing Russian producers. Together with falling domestic demand, those earnings were expected to sustain a large external surplus. Writing on March 31, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova projected a 2022 current account surplus of $200 billion to $240 billion, compared with $120 billion in 2021. These figures describe the forecast at publication, not the eventual outcome.
Cite this work
Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle, Elina Ribakova (2022). Global Macro Views: Russia’s Current Account Surplus. Institute of International Finance.