About this work
Narrowing inflation across US consumer price components had signaled disinflation before the turn in core inflation, according to this December 2022 analysis by Jonathan Pingle, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks. They identified early signs of a similar pattern in the euro area as their monthly inflation breadth index fell and price increases slowed in components sensitive to energy costs. The authors anticipated a turn in euro area inflation and argued for a less restrictive ECB stance.
Abstract
Narrowing inflation across US consumer price components had signaled disinflation before the turn in core inflation, according to this December 2022 analysis by Jonathan Pingle, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks. They identified early signs of a similar pattern in the euro area as their monthly inflation breadth index fell and price increases slowed in components sensitive to energy costs. The authors anticipated a turn in euro area inflation and argued for a less restrictive ECB stance.
Cite this work
Jonathan Pingle, Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks (2022). Global Macro Views: Disinflation in the US and Euro Zone. Institute of International Finance.