About this work
An assessment of forecasting mistakes in 2022 acknowledges the failure to warn ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The authors also revisit an overly pessimistic European recession forecast and the unexpectedly broad frontier market selloff. The retrospective treats these misses as lessons for economic analysis and risk assessment rather than presenting only successful calls.
Abstract
An assessment of forecasting mistakes in 2022 acknowledges the failure to warn ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The authors also revisit an overly pessimistic European recession forecast and the unexpectedly broad frontier market selloff. The retrospective treats these misses as lessons for economic analysis and risk assessment rather than presenting only successful calls.
Cite this work
Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Jonathan Pingle (2022). Global Macro Views: What we got wrong in 2022. Institute of International Finance.