About this work
US resilience after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and unexpectedly rapid disinflation shaped this November 2023 outlook. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected higher yields to weaken housing temporarily, but projected 2% growth in 2024, above consensus. They anticipated core PCE inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of 2024 as supply disruptions faded, and viewed market pricing of roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts as reasonable. These were forecasts made at publication.
Abstract
US resilience after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and unexpectedly rapid disinflation shaped this November 2023 outlook. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected higher yields to weaken housing temporarily, but projected 2% growth in 2024, above consensus. They anticipated core PCE inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of 2024 as supply disruptions faded, and viewed market pricing of roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts as reasonable. These were forecasts made at publication.
Cite this work
Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun (2023). Global Macro Views: The US Outlook. Institute of International Finance.