About this work
Reciprocal tariffs expose emerging markets through differences in trade barriers and dependence on US demand. Mexico, Thailand and Malaysia stand out in the revised assessment, while other economies face distinct sector risks. First published on February 20, 2025 and updated on March 3 after a data revision, the analysis connects trade exposure with uncertainty over capital flows and exchange rates.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: Trade Wars Reloaded: EMs Caught in the Reciprocity Spiral. Institute of International Finance.