About this work
Policy uncertainty reshapes the April 2025 US forecast, which incorporates a shallow recession in the second half of that year. Annual growth is projected at 1.4 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026. Tariffs raise expected inflation even as labor conditions soften, making anticipated Federal Reserve cuts conditional on a later inflation peak and persistent economic weakness.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: U.S. Outlook: Forecasting Through Uncertainty. Institute of International Finance.