About this work
Trade exposure alone no longer determines the consequences of US tariffs in this May 2025 assessment. Political alignment, negotiation speed and discretionary exemptions create divergent outcomes across countries. Numerous exceptions and an opaque negotiating process complicate corporate planning, turning uncertainty about the rules themselves into an economic constraint.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: Fog of Trade: Discretion, Exposure, and the End of Predictability. Institute of International Finance.