About this work
The June 2025 escalation between Israel and Iran raises risks through energy prices, freight costs and financial markets. Higher insurance costs and longer delivery times expose trade vulnerabilities, while dollar demand and currency volatility pressure emerging markets. Baseline forecasts initially remain unchanged, but a downside scenario brings weaker growth and less room for monetary easing.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Garbis Iradian, Jonathan Fortun (2025). IIF Special Report: Narrowing Margins: Israel-Iran Escalation and Global Spillovers. Institute of International Finance.