About this work
Tariff costs begin reaching import and producer prices as inventory cushions run down, while immigration restrictions complicate the reading of US employment data. Manufacturing and private construction weaken even as overall demand appears resilient. This August 2025 assessment asks whether renewed inflation could arrive before growth slows enough to give the Federal Reserve room to ease.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: U.S. Supply Shocks Collide with a Cooling Labor Market. Institute of International Finance.