About this work
Private US hiring had slowed sharply by August 2025, with employment gains increasingly confined to healthcare and education. Immigration restrictions reduced labor supply, helping keep unemployment low even as job creation weakened. Inflation also eroded real income growth. Together, these forces left the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labor market against price pressure from tariffs.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: U.S. Jobs at a Stall Speed and the Fed’s Dilemma. Institute of International Finance.