About this work
Looking back at 2025 reveals where familiar indicators obscured deeper change. Tariffs endured but reached prices unevenly, and strong emerging market debt returns complicated currency signals. Domestic reforms supported resilience, artificial intelligence gained wider macroeconomic importance, and divergent state labor markets challenged the picture of US stability suggested by national totals.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: What Held, What Shifted, and What Surprised us in 2025. Institute of International Finance.