About this work
The direction of the 2025 economic cycle proved more predictable than its timing. China’s repeated recovery trades faded, while emerging market resilience relied more on domestic foundations than expected. Europe and Japan moved through uneven stages, requiring reassessment. Low volatility and a relatively contained dollar range persisted despite geopolitical uncertainty, pointing to structural forces beneath the headlines.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2025). Global Macro Views: The 2025 Cycle - Signals, Timing, and Where the Narrative Shifted. Institute of International Finance.