About this work
Global growth in 2026 increasingly depends on a US expansion powered by productivity and investment in artificial intelligence. Yet stronger output does not translate proportionately into jobs. Capital intensity, semiconductor concentration and policy frictions reshape the expansion, while geopolitical risks operate through confidence and asset pricing. The result is growth with a weaker employment footprint.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: The United States and the Shape of Global Growth in 2026. Institute of International Finance.