About this work
A stable US unemployment rate masks a thinner margin for employment growth. Slower labor force expansion has reduced the hiring needed to keep unemployment steady, while broader measures reveal more slack. Jobs are increasingly concentrated in health and education, leaving goods production and tradable sectors with little momentum and weakening the foundations for sustained income gains.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: U.S. Labor Market Stable Only by Arithmetic. Institute of International Finance.