Institute of International Finance February 19, 2026

IIF Global Macro Views: U.S. Labor Market Stable Only by Arithmetic

Marcello Estevão ·

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A stable US unemployment rate masks a thinner margin for employment growth. Slower labor force expansion has reduced the hiring needed to keep unemployment steady, while broader measures reveal more slack. Jobs are increasingly concentrated in health and education, leaving goods production and tradable sectors with little momentum and weakening the foundations for sustained income gains.

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Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: U.S. Labor Market Stable Only by Arithmetic. Institute of International Finance.