About this work
How long an oil disruption lasts matters more for the U.S. outlook than the size of its first price jump. Shipping and supply pressures could turn energy inflation into weaker real consumption and tighter financial conditions. With underlying labor momentum already softening, these effects could complicate Federal Reserve rate cuts even if oil prices stop climbing.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: Beyond the First Spike — Oil and the U.S. Outlook. Institute of International Finance.