About this work
How long the conflict persists separates three oil-price scenarios for 2026, with average Brent prices around $85, $102 or $135. The analysis explains how declining inventory buffers can shift adjustment toward prices, with particular pressure in Asian physical markets. Longer disruption raises the risk of disproportionately large price increases, adding to inflation and complicating monetary policy through tighter financial conditions.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun, Ivan Burgara (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: Oil After the Shock — Scenarios for a Higher Regime. Institute of International Finance.