About this work
Russia benefits from higher prices for oil supplied outside the Strait of Hormuz, with narrower discounts lifting export earnings despite broadly stable seaborne volumes. The fiscal windfall is constrained by Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure and domestic frictions. If wider escalation depresses global demand, the gains could prove short-lived.
Cite this work
Jonathan Fortun, Ugras Ulku (2026). IIF Views on Europe: Russia's Oil Dividend From The Iran Shock. Institute of International Finance.