IIF Global Macro Views: The Iran Shock — From Prices to Constraints

About this work

Disruption linked to Iran is spreading beyond crude prices into refined products, industrial inputs and logistics. The ceasefire shifts the near-term baseline toward gradual normalization, but emerging Asia remains especially exposed. A failed truce or slow reopening could amplify losses through production networks. Even a lasting ceasefire would leave an inflation shock and difficult policy choices rather than immediately restore pre-shock conditions.