About this work
The duration of wartime disruption matters more than the initial oil-price jump, the authors argue. Their baseline is a fragile easing of pressure, with continued premiums on oil, liquefied natural gas and refined fuels. US resilience rests increasingly on consumption, asset prices and AI investment. Outcomes elsewhere depend on differing energy exposure, policy credibility and access to financing.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: The Shape of Things to Come. Institute of International Finance.