About this work
US growth remains resilient but increasingly reliant on a narrow set of supports. Consumption faces weaker savings and real-income buffers, while AI investment is large enough to affect output, corporate finances and electricity demand. Imported equipment reduces the domestic benefit of that spending. Higher oil prices squeeze households and AI infrastructure, while persistent services inflation limits the Federal Reserve's room to support growth.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: The Narrow but Resilient Path of U.S. Growth. Institute of International Finance.