About this work
Higher long-term rates are prompting a gradual adjustment in private credit valuations, liquidity and refinancing rather than a broad wave of defaults. AI investment and disruption create widening differences among borrowers and sectors. Negotiation and delayed valuation changes can spread stress over time, making underlying risks harder to observe when refinancing remains expensive.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: Private Credit and the Slow Credit Cycle. Institute of International Finance.