About this work
Marcello Estevão and Jonathan Fortun examine how the AI investment boom may affect the cost of long term capital. Five AI intensive companies raised $157 billion through August 2026, adding $108 billion in ten year equivalents, about one fifth of long end Treasury supply. Bond markets absorbed this duration without lasting borrower specific repricing, but the authors argue that stronger investment can still raise the common real rate. Emerging markets may face costlier dollar financing even as countries able to host AI infrastructure attract capital.
Abstract
Marcello Estevão and Jonathan Fortun examine how the AI investment boom may affect the cost of long term capital. Five AI intensive companies raised $157 billion through August 2026, adding $108 billion in ten year equivalents, about one fifth of long end Treasury supply. Bond markets absorbed this duration without lasting borrower specific repricing, but the authors argue that stronger investment can still raise the common real rate. Emerging markets may face costlier dollar financing even as countries able to host AI infrastructure attract capital.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: AI and the Price of Long-Term Capital. Institute of International Finance.