From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Efforts to weaken the dollar confront the enduring appeal of US assets. This analysis links persistent fiscal deficits, foreign investment and currency strength, arguing that tariffs can redirect trade without resolving the overall external imbalance. Currency intervention alone cannot address a problem rooted partly in fiscal policy and global demand for Treasuries.
Read the workThe April 2, 2025 tariff announcement marks a major change in US trade policy. This initial assessment examines a universal 10 percent tariff combined with additional country rates and a broad policy reach. Falling equity futures, rising gold and currency repricing illustrate how markets immediately responded to greater expected trade friction.
Read the workEurope’s defense spending ambitions create different fiscal challenges across its largest economies. Germany expands military and infrastructure investment, while France and Italy face heavier debt constraints. Spain has more flexibility but competing social priorities. The March 2025 analysis examines how additional borrowing could raise financing costs and test fiscal stability.
Read the workAmerica’s fiscal challenge extends beyond annual budget negotiations. Rising entitlement costs and interest payments put debt on an increasingly difficult path. The March 2025 analysis estimates that stabilizing the debt ratio requires tax increases or spending reductions exceeding 2.5 percent of GDP. Balancing the budget would demand a substantially larger adjustment.
Read the workFebruary’s $15.9 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows were supported by debt investment, while equities recorded net withdrawals overall. The March tracker nevertheless reports $11.2 billion entering Chinese equities. That contrast shows how positive demand for one market can coexist with a weaker aggregate picture for the asset class.
Read the workRenewed US tariffs and Chinese retaliation threaten to turn a trade dispute into a broader economic constraint. This February 2025 assessment examines the additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, Beijing’s response and the implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The earlier trade conflict suggests that consumers and businesses absorb much of the cost.
Read the workReciprocal tariffs expose emerging markets through differences in trade barriers and dependence on US demand. Mexico, Thailand and Malaysia stand out in the revised assessment, while other economies face distinct sector risks. First published on February 20, 2025 and updated on March 3 after a data revision, the analysis connects trade exposure with uncertainty over capital flows and exchange rates.
Read the workDebt investment drove January’s $35.4 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows. The February 2025 tracker records $45 billion entering debt securities alongside $9.6 billion leaving equities. Chinese equities nevertheless attracted $2 billion, highlighting a contrast between demand for that market and withdrawals from emerging market equities overall.
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