Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The dollar’s international role rests on economic scale, financial depth and the stability of US markets. This February 2025 assessment weighs those advantages against geopolitical pressure and efforts to develop alternatives. It also considers how tariffs and migration restrictions could reinforce the dollar through inflation and monetary policy, even as longer term challenges to its dominance persist.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A temporary tariff reprieve does not remove the economic costs of uncertainty. Following the February 2025 delay of US measures against Canada and Mexico, this analysis examines disruption in autos, agriculture and energy. Currency depreciation could complicate the trade balance response, while inflation risks create difficult choices for the Federal Reserve and its Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The January 2025 outlook places policy uncertainty at the center of the global economic picture. Potential US tariff and migration changes complicate inflation prospects, while a strong dollar and elevated interest rates constrain emerging markets. Commodity volatility, geopolitical tensions and longer term climate and demographic pressures add further demands on economic strategy.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
December’s emerging market portfolio inflows reached $14.4 billion, supported by investment in debt securities. The January 2025 tracker reports $17.6 billion entering debt and $3.1 billion leaving equities, with Chinese equities accounting for $1.3 billion in withdrawals. The figures show positive aggregate flows alongside continued equity weakness.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A stronger dollar narrows the room for monetary easing outside the United States. This December 2024 assessment contrasts differing policy paths in advanced economies with the growing influence of Federal Reserve decisions on emerging markets. Persistent core inflation, possible tariff effects and fiscal and geopolitical shifts complicate the choices facing central banks.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Emerging markets received $19.2 billion in portfolio inflows during November, despite substantial equity withdrawals. The December 2024 tracker records $30.4 billion entering debt securities and $11.1 billion leaving equities. Chinese equities saw $5.8 billion in outflows, illustrating how demand for emerging market debt coexisted with weaker appetite for stocks.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Japan's 2025 outlook balances a recovery in household demand against inflation and external risks. Wage gains support consumption, while yen depreciation complicates monetary normalization. The December 2024 assessment also examines exposure to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and investment in automation, green technology and infrastructure.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The December 2024 forecast anticipates weaker capital flows to emerging markets in 2025, with China accounting for much of the decline. Slower Federal Reserve easing and a stronger dollar would also raise financing pressures elsewhere. Regional differences and China's deteriorating direct investment balance shape a baseline exposed to substantial downside risks.