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The authors examine how central-bank asset purchases can suppress sovereign yields and obscure fiscal constraints, focusing on the euro area's policy-normalization risks.
Read the workDebt drove emerging market portfolio inflows in October 2021, attracting $20.1 billion of the $24.9 billion total. Jonathan Fortun reports $4.8 billion entering equities overall, while Chinese stocks alone received $7.3 billion. That contrast reveals offsetting equity withdrawals outside China beneath the positive aggregate.
Read the workExceptionally long delivery times and large price increases in the United States pointed to strong demand as well as supply constraints in October 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect this pattern to unusually large fiscal support. They interpret the disruption as evidence of overheating and retain a 2022 core inflation forecast above the Federal Reserve’s projection at the time.
Read the workThe report reviews large, sustained real currency depreciations since 1980 and their relationship with export volumes, imports and current-account adjustment.
Read the workThe October 2021 bond selloff differed from the rise in yields earlier that year. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find increases spread more broadly across maturities, with a smaller rise in real yields. Greater sensitivity to positive economic surprises suggested renewed focus on recovery and a movement toward, though still short of, conditions seen during the 2013 taper tantrum.
Read the workThis monthly tracker reports September emerging-market portfolio inflows, separating equity and debt investment and identifying the contribution of Chinese equities.
Read the workAmbitious fiscal consolidation plans faced implementation risks as emerging economies began withdrawing pandemic stimulus. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau examine planned deficit reductions for 2022 and 2023, including difficult cuts to primary spending. Their September 2021 assessment anticipated delays in several countries, especially where targets implied spending below levels before the pandemic.
Read the workHigher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
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