About this work
Higher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
Abstract
Higher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
Cite this work
Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Jonathan Pingle (2021). Global Macro Views: The EM Terms of Trade Puzzle. Institute of International Finance.