September 2, 2021IIF
Briefing Note: DataTalk 5 – Valuing Data
The note summarizes an unattributed DataTalk discussion of data valuation, including common methodologies, business context and cross-border data flows.
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August 26, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: Global Demand for 2020 Debt Issuance
Who absorbed the surge in government borrowing during the pandemic? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle divide demand for 2020 G10 debt issuance among central banks, foreign investors and other buyers. Their August 2021 comparison finds substantial private demand in the United States and Canada, contrasting with reliance on ECB purchases in the euro periphery and more constrained fiscal room there.
Read the workAugust 12, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: Fiscal Space and Market Access
Low government bond yields can overstate the fiscal room available after a crisis. Drawing on emerging market experience, this August 2021 analysis defines fiscal space through access to investors willing to absorb new debt at low yields. It argues that deteriorating market access during the pandemic also affected advanced economies, complicating the case for more deficit spending based on yields alone.
Read the workJuly 6, 2021IIF
Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs
Stronger exports and relatively stable debt repayments kept emerging market external financing needs contained in July 2021. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau explain how exports recovering faster than imports supported current account balances. Higher US bond yields remained a vulnerability, but their assessment considered the potential shock more manageable than in 2013.
Read the workJuly 1, 2021IIF
IIF Capital Flows Tracker - July 2021
Emerging markets received $28.1 billion in portfolio inflows in June 2021, according to Jonathan Fortun’s July tracker. Debt attracted $18.9 billion, exceeding the $9.2 billion entering equities. Chinese equities accounted for $5.2 billion of those equity inflows. The breakdown distinguishes the stronger contribution from debt markets from the concentration of equity investment in China.
Read the workJune 17, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: The US Yield Conundrum
Why were long term US yields so low in June 2021? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle identified temporary forces: subdued labor market releases and reduced Treasury issuance as the government drew down its cash balance. After Federal Reserve purchases, net issuance turned negative in the second quarter. They expected these supports for bond prices to fade, strengthening the case for higher yields in the second half of 2021.
Read the workJune 16, 2021IIF
Macro Notes: Are Commodity Prices a Threat to EM Inflation?
Rising food and energy prices posed particular inflation risks for emerging markets because these goods weigh heavily in household consumption. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova find only moderate headline inflation increases by June 2021 despite higher import costs. They connect relatively stable expectations with improving central bank credibility, an assessment specific to that stage of the recovery.
Read the workJune 10, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: Supply chain disruptions continue to build
Manufacturing surveys in June 2021 showed supply disruptions spreading across countries as longer delivery times and rising input costs prompted firms to raise prices. The analysis saw growing upside risk to its forecast of 2.6% annual core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter, already above the Federal Reserve’s March projection of 2.2%. These figures describe the outlook at publication, not realized inflation.
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