Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The June tracker records $26.6 billion in net emerging-market portfolio outflows during May, reversing April's inflows. Equity withdrawals of $37 billion outweighed $10.4 billion in debt investment, with selling in Korea and India driving the Asian reversal. Chinese equities still attracted funds, but Chinese debt lost investment. The note links the June market selloff, stronger US employment and a more hawkish Bank of Japan to tighter prospective liquidity conditions.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Higher long-term rates are prompting a gradual adjustment in private credit valuations, liquidity and refinancing rather than a broad wave of defaults. AI investment and disruption create widening differences among borrowers and sectors. Negotiation and delayed valuation changes can spread stress over time, making underlying risks harder to observe when refinancing remains expensive.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Repeated US current-account deficits have accumulated a stock of financial claims that helps explain today's global imbalances. Global demand for dollar assets keeps the United States at the center of financing, but increasingly private investors respond to yields, hedging costs and policy credibility. The authors argue that tariffs cannot resolve an imbalance rooted in saving, fiscal policy and demand for US assets, while maintaining that financing system may become more expensive.
Marcello Estevão and Jonathan Fortun join Clay Lowery to discuss the IIF's midyear Capital Flows Report. They examine US economic outperformance, uneven emerging-market signals and how geopolitical shocks interact with existing weaknesses. The episode also addresses supply-chain disruption beyond energy and the policy risks accumulating for the second half of 2026.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The geopolitical shock reaches beyond oil prices into supply-chain reliability, input costs and financing. Energy-price stabilization would not necessarily remove premiums on gas, fertilizer, shipping and intermediate goods. US consumption, AI investment and energy capacity provide more protection than Europe has, without eliminating exposure. For emerging markets, capital allocation increasingly favors stronger reserves, credible policies and lower energy-import or refinancing risks.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Successful AI investment could raise the equilibrium real interest rate by increasing desired investment relative to saving. Demand for energy, computing infrastructure, equipment and skilled workers is already rising, while lasting unit-labor-cost reductions are less evident. A lower equilibrium rate would require a weaker-growth scenario, potentially involving sustained labor-market damage. The authors therefore caution against assuming AI will restore the very low real rates of the 2010s.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The May tracker records a partial recovery from March's emerging-market selloff, with $58.3 billion in portfolio inflows during April. Debt attracted $51.9 billion, mainly outside China, while equities returned to positive flows. Renewed issuance indicated improving market access before the underlying economic shock had dissipated. The note leaves open whether this was lasting normalization or an initial respite constrained by energy costs, inflation and selective financing.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
US growth remains resilient but increasingly reliant on a narrow set of supports. Consumption faces weaker savings and real-income buffers, while AI investment is large enough to affect output, corporate finances and electricity demand. Imported equipment reduces the domestic benefit of that spending. Higher oil prices squeeze households and AI infrastructure, while persistent services inflation limits the Federal Reserve's room to support growth.