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Private markets face tighter and less predictable financing conditions. Activity continues despite weak exits and slow changes in valuations, while venture capital and private credit become more concentrated and sensitive to costs and rates. Internal liquidity management delays market adjustment as additional financial claims accumulate on the same assets.
Read the workThe duration of wartime disruption matters more than the initial oil-price jump, the authors argue. Their baseline is a fragile easing of pressure, with continued premiums on oil, liquefied natural gas and refined fuels. US resilience rests increasingly on consumption, asset prices and AI investment. Outcomes elsewhere depend on differing energy exposure, policy credibility and access to financing.
Read the workDisruption linked to Iran is spreading beyond crude prices into refined products, industrial inputs and logistics. The ceasefire shifts the near-term baseline toward gradual normalization, but emerging Asia remains especially exposed. A failed truce or slow reopening could amplify losses through production networks. Even a lasting ceasefire would leave an inflation shock and difficult policy choices rather than immediately restore pre-shock conditions.
Read the workRussia benefits from higher prices for oil supplied outside the Strait of Hormuz, with narrower discounts lifting export earnings despite broadly stable seaborne volumes. The fiscal windfall is constrained by Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure and domestic frictions. If wider escalation depresses global demand, the gains could prove short-lived.
Read the workHow long the conflict persists separates three oil-price scenarios for 2026, with average Brent prices around $85, $102 or $135. The analysis explains how declining inventory buffers can shift adjustment toward prices, with particular pressure in Asian physical markets. Longer disruption raises the risk of disproportionately large price increases, adding to inflation and complicating monetary policy through tighter financial conditions.
Read the workEmerging markets recorded $70.3 billion in portfolio outflows in March, their weakest monthly result since March 2020. Equity selling dominated, particularly in emerging Asia outside China. The outlook depends on the duration of the Iran war: a prolonged conflict could spread the pressure to debt flows, domestic policy and liquidity.
Read the workHow long an oil disruption lasts matters more for the U.S. outlook than the size of its first price jump. Shipping and supply pressures could turn energy inflation into weaker real consumption and tighter financial conditions. With underlying labor momentum already softening, these effects could complicate Federal Reserve rate cuts even if oil prices stop climbing.
Read the workEmerging markets face different energy shock risks depending on their import bills, sensitivity to food and fuel inflation, and reliance on foreign investors in domestic debt markets. A vulnerability heatmap brings these channels together while distinguishing structural exposure from market stress. Egypt ranks among the most vulnerable cases, and emerging Asia has the largest concentration of highly exposed economies.
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